Monday, August 11, 2008
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ I was trying to research how much of the world's oil supply has been tapped. It was baffling. Some people look at the decrease in production from individual wells and conclude we're at the tipping point. Others follows goofy graphs and models based on past production, discounting a drop in exploration.
If global CO2 has dropped from 7000 ppm to 380 ppm, where did it all go? I'm assuming it got converted to plant matter and other biomass and pushed underground by more plant matter and biomass, along with some tectonic shenanigans. Am I on track so far? OK.
Well, if we are drilling into that plant matter and biomass, refining it, then throwing it back in the atmosphere while pushing our cars around a little, and we've only managed to bring it up from 310 ppm to 380 ppm in the last 50 years, doesn't that point to only re-liberating about 1% of the carbon? I realize that the carbon isn't just locked up in hydrocarbons but I bet you could look at the slight atmospheric change and conclude there's still LOTS of oil, coal and natural gas down there. Like, 98-99%.
I think the alternative energy tech bubble is about to burst and oil stocks are artificially low. I'm going to take some of the overtime I earned at the fires and invest in oil. Oil will be the cheapest energy source for a long, long time.